{"id":1692,"date":"2026-03-08T19:02:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/?p=1692"},"modified":"2026-03-08T19:04:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:04:40","slug":"as-war-breaks-out-with-israel-iran-has-run-out-of-good-options","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/as-war-breaks-out-with-israel-iran-has-run-out-of-good-options\/","title":{"rendered":"As war breaks out with Israel, Iran has run out of good options"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University<\/strong><\/a> <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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The scale of Israel\u2019s strikes<\/a> on multiple, sensitive Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday was unprecedented. It was the biggest attack<\/a> on Iran since the Iran\u2013Iraq War in the 1980s. <\/p>\n

As expected, Iran responded swiftly<\/a>, even as Israeli attacks on its territory continued. The unfolding conflict is reshaping regional dynamics, and Iran now finds itself with no easy path forward.<\/p>\n

\n
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\n A person stands near a damaged residential building after an Iranian ballistic missile strike hits Tel Aviv.<\/span>
\n Abir Sultan\/EPA<\/span><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Strikes come at a delicate time<\/h2>\n

The timing of the Israeli strikes was highly significant. They came at a critical point in the high-stakes negotiations between Iran and the United States over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program that began earlier this year. <\/p>\n

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a report accusing Tehran of stockpiling<\/a> highly enriched uranium at levels dangerously close to weaponisation. <\/p>\n

According to the report, Iran has accumulated<\/a> around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity. If this uranium is further enriched to 90% purity, it would be enough to build nine to ten bombs.<\/p>\n

The day before Israel\u2019s attack, the IAEA board of governors also declared<\/a> Iran to be in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in two decades. <\/p>\n

The nuclear talks recently hit a stumbling block over a major issue \u2013 the US refusal to allow Iran to enrich any uranium at all<\/a> for a civilian nuclear program. <\/p>\n

Iran has previously agreed to cap<\/a> its enrichment at 3.67%<\/a> under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal between Iran, the US and other global powers agreed to in 2015 (and abandoned by the first Trump administration in 2018). But it has refused to relinquish its right to enrichment altogether. <\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump reportedly urged<\/a> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran last week, believing he was close to a deal. <\/p>\n

But after the attack, Trump ramped up his threats<\/a> on Iran again, urging it to agree to a deal \u201cbefore there is nothing left\u201d. He called<\/a> the Israeli strikes \u201cexcellent\u201d and suggested there was \u201cmore to come\u201d.<\/p>\n

Given this context, it is understandable why Iran does not view the US as an impartial mediator. In response, Iran suspended its negotiations with the US, announcing it would skip the sixth round of talks scheduled for Sunday. <\/p>\n

Rather than compelling Iran to agree to a deal, the excessive pressure could risk pushing Iran towards a more extreme stance instead.<\/p>\n

While Iranian officials have denied any intention to develop a military nuclear program, they have warned that continued Israeli attacks and US pressure might force Tehran to reconsider<\/a> as a deterrence mechanism.<\/p>\n\n

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\n
\n Read more:
\n As its conflict with Israel escalates, could Iran now acquire a nuclear bomb?<\/a>
\n <\/strong>
\n <\/em>\n<\/p>\n\n

Why surrender could spell the regime\u2019s end<\/h2>\n

On several occasions, Trump has insisted<\/a> he is not seeking \u201cregime change\u201d in Iran. He has repeatedly claimed he wants to see Iran be \u201csuccessful<\/a>\u201d \u2013 the only requirement is for it to accept a US deal. <\/p>\n

However, in Iran\u2019s view, the US proposal is not viewed as a peace offer, but as a blueprint for surrender. And the fear is this would ultimately pave the way for regime change under the guise of diplomacy.<\/p>\n

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded to the latest US proposal by insisting that uranium enrichment remains a \u201cred line\u201d<\/a> for Iran. Abandoning this right from the Iranian perspective would only embolden its adversaries to escalate their pressure on the regime and make further demands \u2013 such as dismantling Iran\u2019s missile program. <\/p>\n

The fear in Tehran is this could push the country into a defenceless state without a way to deter future Israeli strikes.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, capitulating to the US terms could ignite domestic backlash on two fronts: from an already growing opposition movement, and from the regime\u2019s base of loyal supporters, who would see any retreat as a betrayal. <\/p>\n

In this context, many in Iran\u2019s leadership believe that giving in to Trump\u2019s terms would not avert regime change \u2013 it would hasten it.<\/p>\n

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\n Iranian Red Crescent Society rescuers work at the scene of an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13.<\/span>
\n Iranian Red Crescent Society\/AP<\/span><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What options remain for Iran now?<\/h2>\n

Caught between escalating pressure and existential threats, Iran finds itself with few viable options other than to project strength. It has already begun to pursue this strategy by launching retaliatory missile strikes at Israeli cities.<\/p>\n

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\n Israeli rescue teams at the site where an Iranian ballistic missile hit residential buildings in Rishon LeZion, near Tel Aviv.<\/span>
\n Abir Sultan\/EPA<\/span><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This response has been much stronger than the relatively contained tit-for-tat strikes Israel and Iran engaged in last year. Iran\u2019s strikes have caused considerable damage<\/a> to government and residential areas in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.<\/p>\n

Iran sees no alternative but to push forward, having already been drawn into open confrontation. Any sign of weakness would severely undermine the regime\u2019s legitimacy at home and embolden its adversaries abroad. <\/p>\n

Moreover, Tehran is betting on Trump\u2019s aversion to foreign wars. Iranian leaders believe the US is neither prepared nor willing to enter another costly conflict in the region \u2013 one that could disrupt global trade and jeopardise Trump\u2019s recent economic partnerships with Persian Gulf states. <\/p>\n

Therefore, Iran\u2019s leadership likely believes that by standing firm now, the conflict will be limited, so long as the US stays on the sidelines. And then, Iran\u2019s leaders would try to return to the negotiating table, in their view, from a position of strength.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

This article written by Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University<\/strong> and is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University The scale of Israel\u2019s strikes on multiple, sensitive Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday was unprecedented. It was the biggest attack on Iran since the Iran\u2013Iraq War in the 1980s. As expected, Iran responded swiftly, even as Israeli attacks on its territory continued. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":179,"featured_media":1694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/179"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1692\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}