{"id":1893,"date":"2025-06-19T21:11:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-19T21:11:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/?p=1893"},"modified":"2025-06-19T21:37:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T21:37:12","slug":"why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-are-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-are-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Israel \u2014 and potentially the U.S. \u2014 are sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-are-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>As the <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/live-updates\/israel-iran-live-updates\/?id=122881565&amp;entryId=122960407\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">war between Israel and Iran escalates<\/a>, Israel is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-israel-nuclear-talks.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increasing its calls<\/a> on the United States to become involved in the conflict.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/5355720-us-military-iran-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Former Israeli officials<\/a> are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support Israel\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/all-signs-trump-preparing-us-attack-iran-2086983\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">signalled a willingness<\/a> for the U.S. to become involved in the conflict. He\u2019s gone so far, in fact, to suggest in social media posts that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/politics\/government\/the-latest-trump-says-the-us-knows-where-iran-s-leader-is-hiding-but-won-t-kill-him-for-now\/ar-AA1GSCMU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he could kill Iran\u2019s supreme leader<\/a> if he wanted to.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe title=\"Trump threatens to kill Iran&#039;s leader Ali Khamenei and demands &#039;unconditional surrender&#039; | BBC News\" width=\"1170\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LD6rVGKpazw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">Segment on Trump\u2019s threats against Iran\u2019s leader. (BBC News)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The American military could certainly make an impact in any air campaign against Iran. The problem from a military standpoint, however, is that the U.S., <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/full-list-us-military-deployments-that-point-war-iran-2087171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">based on its forces\u2019 deployment<\/a>, will almost certainly seek to keep its involvement limited to its air force to avoid another Iraq-like quagmire.<\/p>\n<p>While doing so could almost certainly disrupt Iran\u2019s nuclear program, it will likely fall short of <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/16\/middleeast\/israel-operation-iran-regime-change-netanyahu-intl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Israel\u2019s goal<\/a> of regime change.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it could reinforce the Iranian government and draw the U.S. into a costly ground war.<\/p>\n<h2>Israel\u2019s need for American support<\/h2>\n<p>The initial stated reason for Israel\u2019s bombing campaign \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/an-immediate-operational-necessity-why-israel-finally-attacked-irans-nuclear-facilities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities<\/a> \u2014 appears specious at best.<\/p>\n<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/gallery\/2025\/6\/18\/the-history-of-netanyahus-rhetoric-on-irans-nuclear-ambitions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">several times in the past<\/a>, without evidence, that Iran is close to achieving a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence, however, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-in\/news\/world\/3-years-away-iran-was-not-so-close-to-getting-nuclear-weapon-says-us-intel-countering-israeli-claim\/ar-AA1GSxGQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">have assessed<\/a> that Iran is three years away from deploying a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of the veracity of the claims, Israel initiated the offensive and now requires American support.<\/p>\n<p>Israel\u2019s need for U.S. assistance rests on two circumstances:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>While Israel succeeded in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/13\/middleeast\/israel-iran-strikes-military-deaths-intl-hnk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">eliminating key figures<\/a> from the Iranian military in its initial strikes, Iran\u2019s response appears to have exceeded <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/defence\/12-days-of-defence-left-israels-285-million-a-night-shield-races-against-the-clock-as-iran-unleashes-hypersonic-barrage\/articleshow\/121932247.cms?from=mdr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Israel\u2019s expectations<\/a> with their Arrow missile interceptors nearing depletion.<\/li>\n<li>Israel\u2019s air strikes can only achieve so much in disrupting Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/13\/world\/video\/israel-ehud-barak-iran-amanpour-digvid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Most analysts<\/a> note that Israel\u2019s bombings are only likely to delay the Iranian nuclear program by a few months. This is due to the fact that Israeli missiles are incapable of penetrating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which estimates place <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/17\/middleeast\/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">close to<\/a> 300 feet underground.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The United States, however, possesses munitions that could damage, or even destroy, the Fordow facility. Most notably, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/graphics\/2025\/06\/18\/how-does-a-bunker-buster-bomb-work-b2-spirit-stealth-bomber-gbu-57-fordow-nuclear-site\/84257217007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GBU-57A\/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator<\/a> (more commonly known as a bunker buster) has a penetration capability of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalsecurity.org\/military\/systems\/munitions\/mop.htm#google_vignette\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">200 feet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Multiple strikes by said munition would render Fordow inoperable, if not outright destroyed.<\/p>\n<h2>Romanticizing air power<\/h2>\n<p>The efficacy of air power has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.historynewsnetwork.org\/article\/bomb-them-back-to-the-stone-age-an-etymology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vastly overrated<\/a> in the popular media and various air forces of the world. Air power is great at disrupting an opponent, but has significant limitations in influencing the outcome of a war.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, air power is likely to prove an inadequate tool for one of the supposed Israeli and American objectives in the war: regime change. For air power <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_briefs\/RB38.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to be effective<\/a> at bringing about regime change, it needs to demoralize the Iranian people to the point that they\u2019re willing to oppose their own government.<\/p>\n<p>Early air enthusiasts believed that a population\u2019s demoralization would be an inevitable consequence of aerial bombardment. Italian general Giulio Douhet, a prominent air power theorist, argued that air power was so mighty that it could <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/dominiodellariae00unse\/page\/n3\/mode\/2up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">destroy cities and demoralize<\/a> an opponent into surrendering.<\/p>\n<p>Douhet was correct on the first point. He was wrong on the second.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-right zoomable\">\n<div class=\"placeholder-container\" style=\"--aspect-ratio-percent: 102.9535864978903%; --background-color: #424242;\"><\/div><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Recent history provides evidence. While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iwm.org.uk\/history\/how-the-second-world-war-was-fought-from-the-air\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">considerable<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usahistorytimeline.com\/pages\/the-strategic-importance-of-air-power-in-wwii-cb7b4ce3.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ink has been spilled<\/a> to demonstrate the efficacy of air power during the Second World War, close examination of the facts demonstrate that it had a <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/strategyfordefea0000murr_p5n7\/page\/n1\/mode\/2up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">minimal impact<\/a>. In fact, Allied bombing of German cities in several instances created the <a href=\"https:\/\/daily.jstor.org\/did-allied-bombs-destroy-german-morale\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">opposite effect<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>More recent bombing campaigns replicated this failure. The U.S. bombing of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War did not significantly damage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.raf.mod.uk\/what-we-do\/centre-for-air-and-space-power-studies\/aspr\/apr-vol10-iss3-4-pdf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">North Vietnamese morale or war effort<\/a>. NATO\u2019s bombing of Serbia in 1999, likewise, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2023\/04\/04\/more-than-two-decades-after-natos-bombing-campaign-serbia-still-hasnt-had-its-moment-of-ca\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rallied support<\/a> for the unpopular Slobodan Milosevic due to its perceived injustice \u2014 and continues to evoke <a href=\"https:\/\/moderndiplomacy.eu\/2025\/03\/18\/remembering-1999-how-the-nato-bombing-shaped-serbian-national-identity\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">strong emotions<\/a> to this day.<\/p>\n<p>Iran\u2019s political regime may be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.steptoe.com\/en\/news-publications\/stepwise-risk-outlook\/how-irans-strategic-dilemma-underpins-ongoing-conflict-in-the-middle-east.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unpopular with many Iranians<\/a>, but Israeli and potentially American bombing may shore up support for the Iranian government.<\/p>\n<p>Nationalism is a potent force, particularly when people are under attack. Israel\u2019s bombing of Iran will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/as-israel-eyes-regime-change-irans-opposition-is-divisive-and-divided\/ar-AA1GQnH5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rally segments of the population<\/a> to the government that would otherwise oppose it.<\/p>\n<h2>Few positive options<\/h2>\n<p>The limitations of air power to fuel significant political change in Iran should give Trump pause about intervening in the conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Some American support, such as providing weapons, is a given due to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/23916266\/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">close relationship<\/a> between the U.S. and Israel. But any realization of American and Israeli aspirations of a non-nuclear Iran and a new government will likely require ground forces.<\/p>\n<p>Recent American experiences in <a href=\"https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/US-Withdrawal-from-Afghanistan.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Afghanistan<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iraq-us-troops-military-withdrawal-iran-a79aa83dca8f776f87a138bfe5697fa3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iraq<\/a> show such a ground forces operation won\u2019t lead to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/middle-east\/iran-news\/article-858196\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">swift victory<\/a> that Trump desires, but could potentially stretch on for decades.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>This article written by <strong>James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University<\/strong> and is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-are-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University As the war between Israel and Iran escalates, Israel is increasing its calls on the United States to become involved in the conflict. Former Israeli officials are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":179,"featured_media":1895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[635,631,627,624,634,641,625,632,621,638,614,618,629,623,622,636,633,639,616,640,642,630,617,626,628,637,620,619,615,592],"class_list":["post-1893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials","tag-american-ground-war-fears","tag-arrow-missile-interceptors-iran","tag-escalation-of-israel-iran-conflict","tag-gbu-57a-b-massive-ordnance-penetrator","tag-giulio-douhet-air-power-theory","tag-impact-of-foreign-bombing-on-nationalism","tag-iran-fordow-enrichment-plant","tag-iran-nationalism-bombing","tag-iran-nuclear-program-attack","tag-iranian-public-opinion-on-bombing","tag-israel-iran-war-2025","tag-israeli-air-campaign-2025","tag-israeli-missile-defense-depletion","tag-israeli-missile-strikes-fordow","tag-limitations-of-air-power","tag-military-consequences-of-us-support-for-israel","tag-nato-serbia-bombing-1999-lessons","tag-political-backlash-us-iran-war","tag-regime-change-in-iran","tag-risks-of-regime-change-by-airpower","tag-romanticizing-aerial-warfare-failures","tag-strategic-bombing-effectiveness-history","tag-trump-iran-intervention","tag-trump-middle-east-war-strategy","tag-trump-threats-iran-leader","tag-us-air-force-iran-bombing-campaign","tag-us-airstrikes-iran","tag-us-bunker-buster-fordow","tag-us-military-support-for-israel","tag-us-israel-military-cooperation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/179"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}