{"id":1982,"date":"2026-03-08T19:03:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/?p=1982"},"modified":"2026-03-08T19:05:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:05:18","slug":"why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Israel \u2014 and potentially the U.S. \u2014 is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348\"><strong>James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University<\/strong><\/a> <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<div itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<p>As the <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/live-updates\/israel-iran-live-updates\/?id=122881565&amp;entryId=122960407\">war between Israel and Iran escalates<\/a>, Israel is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/06\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-israel-nuclear-talks.html\">increasing its calls<\/a> on the United States to become involved in the conflict. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/defense\/5355720-us-military-iran-trump\/\">Former Israeli officials<\/a> are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support Israel\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/all-signs-trump-preparing-us-attack-iran-2086983\">signalled a willingness<\/a> for the U.S. to become involved in the conflict. He\u2019s gone so far, in fact, to suggest in social media posts that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/politics\/government\/the-latest-trump-says-the-us-knows-where-iran-s-leader-is-hiding-but-won-t-kill-him-for-now\/ar-AA1GSCMU\">he could kill Iran\u2019s supreme leader<\/a> if he wanted to.<\/p>\n<figure>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Trump threatens to kill Iran&amp;apos;s leader Ali Khamenei and demands &amp;apos;unconditional surrender&amp;apos; | BBC News\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LD6rVGKpazw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">Segment on Trump\u2019s threats against Iran\u2019s leader. (BBC News)<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The American military could certainly make an impact in any air campaign against Iran. The problem from a military standpoint, however, is that the U.S., <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/full-list-us-military-deployments-that-point-war-iran-2087171\">based on its forces\u2019 deployment<\/a>, will almost certainly seek to keep its involvement limited to its air force to avoid another Iraq-like quagmire.<\/p>\n<p>While doing so could almost certainly disrupt Iran\u2019s nuclear program, it will likely fall short of <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/16\/middleeast\/israel-operation-iran-regime-change-netanyahu-intl\">Israel\u2019s goal<\/a> of regime change.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, it could reinforce the Iranian government and draw the U.S. into a costly ground war.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p>\n  <em><br \/>\n    <strong><br \/>\n      Read more:<br \/>\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-is-there-so-much-concern-over-irans-nuclear-program-and-where-could-it-go-from-here-259052\">Why is there so much concern over Iran\u2019s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?<\/a><br \/>\n    <\/strong><br \/>\n  <\/em>\n<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>Israel\u2019s need for American support<\/h2>\n<p>The initial stated reason for Israel\u2019s bombing campaign \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/an-immediate-operational-necessity-why-israel-finally-attacked-irans-nuclear-facilities\/\">Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities<\/a> \u2014 appears specious at best.<\/p>\n<p>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/gallery\/2025\/6\/18\/the-history-of-netanyahus-rhetoric-on-irans-nuclear-ambitions\">several times in the past<\/a>, without evidence, that Iran is close to achieving a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence, however, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-in\/news\/world\/3-years-away-iran-was-not-so-close-to-getting-nuclear-weapon-says-us-intel-countering-israeli-claim\/ar-AA1GSxGQ\">have assessed<\/a> that Iran is three years away from deploying a nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<div class=\"placeholder-container\" style=\"--aspect-ratio-percent:68.43501326259947%;--background-color:#996f5c\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"An aerial view of a nuclear facility.\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=411&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=411&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=411&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=516&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=516&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675430\/original\/file-20250619-62-qaf6cg.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=516&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\"\/><\/div><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows the Isfahan enrichment facility in Iran after being hit by Israeli airstrikes on June 14, 2025.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">(Maxar Technologies via AP)<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Regardless of the veracity of the claims, Israel initiated the offensive and now requires American support.<\/p>\n<p>Israel\u2019s need for U.S. assistance rests on two circumstances:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p>While Israel succeeded in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/13\/middleeast\/israel-iran-strikes-military-deaths-intl-hnk\">eliminating key figures<\/a> from the Iranian military in its initial strikes, Iran\u2019s response appears to have exceeded <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/defence\/12-days-of-defence-left-israels-285-million-a-night-shield-races-against-the-clock-as-iran-unleashes-hypersonic-barrage\/articleshow\/121932247.cms?from=mdr\">Israel\u2019s expectations<\/a> with their Arrow missile interceptors nearing depletion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Israel\u2019s air strikes can only achieve so much in disrupting Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/13\/world\/video\/israel-ehud-barak-iran-amanpour-digvid\">Most analysts<\/a> note that Israel\u2019s bombings are only likely to delay the Iranian nuclear program by a few months. This is due to the fact that Israeli missiles are incapable of penetrating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which estimates place <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/17\/middleeast\/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl\">close to<\/a> 300 feet underground.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The United States, however, possesses munitions that could damage, or even destroy, the Fordow facility. Most notably, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/graphics\/2025\/06\/18\/how-does-a-bunker-buster-bomb-work-b2-spirit-stealth-bomber-gbu-57-fordow-nuclear-site\/84257217007\/\">GBU-57A\/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator<\/a> (more commonly known as a bunker buster) has a penetration capability of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalsecurity.org\/military\/systems\/munitions\/mop.htm#google_vignette\">200 feet<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Multiple strikes by said munition would render Fordow inoperable, if not outright destroyed.<\/p>\n<h2>Romanticizing air power<\/h2>\n<p>The efficacy of air power has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.historynewsnetwork.org\/article\/bomb-them-back-to-the-stone-age-an-etymology\">vastly overrated<\/a> in the popular media and various air forces of the world. Air power is great at disrupting an opponent, but has significant limitations in influencing the outcome of a war.<\/p>\n<p>Specifically, air power is likely to prove an inadequate tool for one of the supposed Israeli and American objectives in the war: regime change. For air power <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rand.org\/pubs\/research_briefs\/RB38.html\">to be effective<\/a> at bringing about regime change, it needs to demoralize the Iranian people to the point that they\u2019re willing to oppose their own government.<\/p>\n<p>Early air enthusiasts believed that a population\u2019s demoralization would be an inevitable consequence of aerial bombardment. Italian general Giulio Douhet, a prominent air power theorist, argued that air power was so mighty that it could <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/dominiodellariae00unse\/page\/n3\/mode\/2up\">destroy cities and demoralize<\/a> an opponent into surrendering.<\/p>\n<p>Douhet was correct on the first point. He was wrong on the second.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-right zoomable\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"placeholder-container\" style=\"--aspect-ratio-percent:102.9535864978903%;--background-color:#424242\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"A black-and-white photo shows destroyed ships in a harbour.\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=619&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=619&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=619&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=777&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=777&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675431\/original\/file-20250619-56-kddd5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=777&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\"\/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">Ships damaged by an Allied bombing in Wilhelmshaven, Germany, in 1945.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">(National Archives of Canada\/Christopher J. Woods )<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Recent history provides evidence. While <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iwm.org.uk\/history\/how-the-second-world-war-was-fought-from-the-air\">considerable<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usahistorytimeline.com\/pages\/the-strategic-importance-of-air-power-in-wwii-cb7b4ce3.php\">ink has been spilled<\/a> to demonstrate the efficacy of air power during the Second World War, close examination of the facts demonstrate that it had a <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/strategyfordefea0000murr_p5n7\/page\/n1\/mode\/2up\">minimal impact<\/a>. In fact, Allied bombing of German cities in several instances created the <a href=\"https:\/\/daily.jstor.org\/did-allied-bombs-destroy-german-morale\/\">opposite effect<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>More recent bombing campaigns replicated this failure. The U.S. bombing of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War did not significantly damage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.raf.mod.uk\/what-we-do\/centre-for-air-and-space-power-studies\/aspr\/apr-vol10-iss3-4-pdf\/\">North Vietnamese morale or war effort<\/a>. NATO\u2019s bombing of Serbia in 1999, likewise, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2023\/04\/04\/more-than-two-decades-after-natos-bombing-campaign-serbia-still-hasnt-had-its-moment-of-ca\">rallied support<\/a> for the unpopular Slobodan Milosevic due to its perceived injustice \u2014 and continues to evoke <a href=\"https:\/\/moderndiplomacy.eu\/2025\/03\/18\/remembering-1999-how-the-nato-bombing-shaped-serbian-national-identity\/\">strong emotions<\/a> to this day.<\/p>\n<p>Iran\u2019s political regime may be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.steptoe.com\/en\/news-publications\/stepwise-risk-outlook\/how-irans-strategic-dilemma-underpins-ongoing-conflict-in-the-middle-east.html\">unpopular with many Iranians<\/a>, but Israeli and potentially American bombing may shore up support for the Iranian government.<\/p>\n<p>Nationalism is a potent force, particularly when people are under attack. Israel\u2019s bombing of Iran will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/as-israel-eyes-regime-change-irans-opposition-is-divisive-and-divided\/ar-AA1GQnH5\">rally segments of the population<\/a> to the government that would otherwise oppose it.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"align-center \">\n<div class=\"placeholder-container\" style=\"--aspect-ratio-percent:66.71087533156499%;--background-color:#65523b\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"An interior photograph of the rubble of a destroyed building.\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=400&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/675441\/original\/file-20250619-62-rqy125.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=503&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px\"\/><\/div><figcaption>\n              <span class=\"caption\">The damaged headquarters of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Iranian state television, in Tehran on June 19, 2025.<\/span><br \/>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">(AP Photo\/Vahid Salemi)<\/span><\/span><br \/>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Few positive options<\/h2>\n<p>The limitations of air power to fuel significant political change in Iran should give Trump pause about intervening in the conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Some American support, such as providing weapons, is a given due to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world-politics\/23916266\/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid\">close relationship<\/a> between the U.S. and Israel. But any realization of American and Israeli aspirations of a non-nuclear Iran and a new government will likely require ground forces. <\/p>\n<p>Recent American experiences in <a href=\"https:\/\/bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/US-Withdrawal-from-Afghanistan.pdf\">Afghanistan<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iraq-us-troops-military-withdrawal-iran-a79aa83dca8f776f87a138bfe5697fa3\">Iraq<\/a> show such a ground forces operation won\u2019t lead to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/middle-east\/iran-news\/article-858196\">swift victory<\/a> that Trump desires, but could potentially stretch on for decades.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>This article written by <strong>James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University<\/strong> and is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University As the war between Israel and Iran escalates, Israel is increasing its calls &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Why Israel \u2014 and potentially the U.S. \u2014 is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":179,"featured_media":1895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_buddyx_sub_header_visibility":"","_buddyx_sub_header_title_visibility":"","_hide_show_side_panel":"","_buddyxpro_page_sidebar":"","_buddyxpro_page_disable_header":"","_buddyxpro_page_disable_footer":"","_buddyxpro_page_content_width":"","_buddyxpro_page_header_style":"","_buddyxpro_page_color_mode":"","_buddyxpro_page_loader":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/179"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1982\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}