{"id":3273,"date":"2026-03-08T19:04:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/?p=3273"},"modified":"2026-03-08T19:06:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:06:05","slug":"wild-swings-in-the-oil-price-make-the-reserve-banks-job-harder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wild-swings-in-the-oil-price-make-the-reserve-banks-job-harder\/","title":{"rendered":"Wild swings in the oil price make the Reserve Bank\u2019s job harder"},"content":{"rendered":"

By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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\n It looks, at least for now, as though tensions in the Middle East are easing somewhat<\/a>. It appears much less likely Iran will try to close the
\nStrait of Hormuz, through which flows about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil.<\/p>\n

In response, oil prices have dropped to a two-week low below US$70 a barrel.<\/p>\n

The economists at the Reserve Bank will be breathing a sigh of relief. A surge in oil prices would have injected more uncertainty into the global outlook. It would have made a decision on whether to cut interest rates in July harder.<\/p>\n

Financial markets are betting on a rate cut at the July 7\u20138 meeting, but three of the four major bank economists<\/a> are tipping August as more likely.<\/p>\n

A tough global backdrop<\/h2>\n

The global economic environment is particularly challenging. Even before the recent increased tensions in the Middle East, the Trump tariff announcements (and withdrawals<\/a> and re-impositions) were the major cause of the uncertainty around the domestic economy. <\/p>\n

And there is a lot of \u201cuncertainty\u201d. Journalist Shane Wright noted<\/a> the word \u201cuncertain\u201d appeared 134 times in the Reserve Bank\u2019s latest Statement on Monetary Policy<\/a>. Something similar has been noted<\/a> in the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n

There have been wild swings in the oil price in recent days. There was a surge on market fears Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>. The price slid when a ceasefire was announced. It rose again when the ceasefire was broken within hours. As the fragile truce appeared to hold, the price of oil has now gone back down. <\/p>\n