{"id":3606,"date":"2026-03-08T19:07:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/?p=3606"},"modified":"2026-03-08T19:35:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T19:35:02","slug":"american-dominance-is-not-dead-but-it-is-changing-and-not-for-the-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/american-dominance-is-not-dead-but-it-is-changing-and-not-for-the-better\/","title":{"rendered":"American dominance is not dead, but it is changing \u2014 and not for the better"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Laurent Borzillo, Chercheur invit\u00e9 au CCEAE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al et chercheur associ\u00e9 au CESICE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Grenoble, \u00c9cole nationale d’administration publique (ENAP)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n Just six months after Donald Trump\u2019s return to the presidency in the United States, it feels like there has been a sharp break with America\u2019s post-war diplomatic legacy.<\/p>\n

The Trump administration has been steadily making announcements that upset the established order, including reviving a proposal to purchase Greenland<\/a> without ruling out military action<\/a>. American officials have publicly spread<\/a> pro-Russian narratives
\nand escalated protectionism by introducing tariffs<\/a>, often announced unilaterally and suddenly, but fluctuate according to the president\u2019s moods.<\/a><\/p>\n

What do these developments tell us about the American ability to structure the international order in light of the fact that the U.S. has been the dominant player in the global system in recent decades? <\/p>\n

As a researcher at ENAP specializing in international relations theory, I believe that it marks a significant step in the emergence of counter-hegemonic powers and, by extension, that it signals a weakening of American power.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/div>
\n Uncertain friends: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney with U.S. President Donald Trump at the G7 summit on June 16, 2025, in Kananaskis, Alta.<\/span>
\n (AP Photo\/Mark Schiefelbein)<\/span><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Decline that is nothing new<\/h2>\n

Many see Trump administration\u2019s recent choices as a sign of the \u201cbeginning of the end\u201d of American hegemony. But there is nothing new about this discourse.<\/p>\n

The idea of a U.S. decline has been circulating regularly in academic and strategic circles since the Cold War. As early as the 1980s, British scholar Susan Strange<\/a> challenged this \u201cdeclinist\u201d view, insisting that the true strength of the U.S. lay not just in its economic or military power, but in its central role within major international institutions and strategic alliances.<\/p>\n

It was this structuring role \u2014 rather than material superiority alone \u2014 that guaranteed its dominant position on the world stage. After the end of the Cold War, the question of decline was largely set aside: French Minister Hubert V\u00e9drine declared the U.S. a \u201chyperpower\u201d<\/a> for the way it concentrated all the means of global domination.<\/p>\n

But since the mid-2000s, the debate on the decline of American hegemony has returned with a vengeance, fuelled by the rise of countries such as China, Russia, India, Brazil, Iran and South Africa.<\/p>\n

However, since then no consensus has emerged within the academic community<\/a> about the nature of the international system (unipolar, bipolar, or even multipolar).<\/p>\n

Liberal hegemony<\/h2>\n

American hegemony has been weakened in certain regions of the world. Political science professors Douglas Lemke of Pennsylvania State University and Suzanne Werner of Emory University have shown this in their work on regional systems<\/a>. However, none of the candidates for counter-hegemony (China, India, Japan or even the European Union) have so far managed to match the U.S. on one key point: its ability to forge strong and lasting alliances and occupy a central position in major international organizations.<\/p>\n

This role of conductor, which goes beyond the simple accumulation of material power, echoes Strange\u2019s reflections on \u201cstructural power.\u201d<\/p>\n

This aligns closely with research<\/a> by Daniel Nexon, professor at Georgetown University, and Thomas Wright, director of the U.S.-Europe Center at the Brookings Institution. They distinguish between two main types of hegemony:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Classical or imperial hegemony is based on coercion, threats and unbalanced bilateral relations. A country with this type of hegemony imposes its preferences without submitting to shared rules. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
  2. \n

    Liberal hegemony is based on shared and binding institutions, to which even the dominant power agrees to submit in exchange for more stable and legitimate co-operation.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/div>
    \n Figure 1: Different types of hegemony (Nexon and Wright, 2007, p. 256).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    From this perspective, the U.S-led international order since 1945 clearly falls under the second model.<\/p>\n

    During the Cold War, its hegemony was exercised mainly in the western world. But after the fall of the Soviet bloc, this influence spread globally. The U.S. came to embody a form of institutional hegemony, supported by networks of alliances like NATO and the G7 and multilateral institutions that include the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization.<\/p>\n

    This made American domination more acceptable, less brutal, and above all more difficult to compete with. Even though the American position was weakened in certain areas, it remained central because it guaranteed stability and predictability that its rivals \u2014 including China and Russia, who favoured a more coercive approach \u2014 could not offer.<\/p>\n

    It was precisely this liberal\/constitutional model of hegemony that slowed the emergence of real global counterpowers.<\/p>\n

    Trump 2.0: The return unfiltered hegemony<\/h2>\n

    Through its numerous statements and decisions, the Trump administration is breaking with the liberal hegemony that has structured the international order for decades.<\/p>\n

    In its place, a more authoritarian, unilateral stance is emerging, close to what researchers call classic hegemony. This change is clear enough that some analysts consider certain developments worrisome. <\/p>\n

    Olivier Schmitt, professor and specialist of alliances at the Royal Danish Defence College, raised the possibility a few months ago of a \u201cWarsawization\u201d of NATO<\/a>, a scenario in which Washington would transform the organization into a kind of counterpart to the Warsaw Pact, with a rigid and asymmetrical structure based on fear rather than co-operation.<\/p>\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/div>
    \n President Donald Trump talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House in March 2025.<\/span>
    \n (Pool via AP)<\/span><\/span>
    \n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    This return to a form of coercive hegemony is problematic because it\u2019s based on a very short-term view of international relations.<\/p>\n

    Unlike China or Russia, which both apply a form of authoritarian hegemony but with a certain strategic consistency and predictability, the Trump administration acts as if international relations were a non-iterative game, in the sense of game theory<\/a> \u2014 in other words, a game in which refusing to co-operate is the most winning strategy.<\/p>\n

    It adopts a strategy where each move is played without concern for future retaliation or the long-term impact on its reputation. However, other countries and partners remember and adjust their behaviour based on precedents. <\/p>\n

    By acting in this way, the U.S. projects the image of an opportunistic and unstable entity whose commitments no longer have lasting value. This change in posture erodes trust and undermines the stabilizing role that the U.S. had once successfully embodied.<\/p>\n

    Uncertainty that fuels mistrust<\/h2>\n

    Europe and some of its partners are embarking on what looks like a new \u201cwestern schism,\u201d<\/a> positioning themselves as a liberal counter-model to Trump\u2019s America. But the outcome of this dynamic will largely depend on the ability of Europeans to be agents of change rather than mere spectators.<\/p>\n

    Nevertheless, the conditions are now in place for the emergence of genuine counter-hegemonies. This dynamic will continue even if the Democrats return to power in 2029: the Trumpist interlude will have provided America\u2019s allies with proof that an alliance with the U.S. is only reliable when the White House is Democratic, and that it immediately becomes precarious as soon as a Republican occupies it.<\/p>\n

    This uncertainty will fuel mistrust and push for the consolidation of counter-hegemonic strategies. Even a partial restoration of the liberal order will probably not be enough to stem the fragmentation of the international system that is already underway.<\/p>\n

    Furthermore, it should be noted that the Trump administration is only just beginning its term: unless there is a reversal in the midterm elections in November 2026, it will still have considerable margin for manoeuvre until January 2029. In other words, the current trajectory is likely to continue.<\/p>\n

    In this sense, Trump\u2019s second term does not simply mark a shift, but a lasting break. The slogan \u201cMake America Great Again\u201d now seems even more misguided: instead of restoring American power, this policy is accelerating its decline.\n <\/p><\/div>\n

    <\/p>\n

    This article written by Laurent Borzillo, Chercheur invit\u00e9 au CCEAE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al et chercheur associ\u00e9 au CESICE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Grenoble, \u00c9cole nationale d’administration publique (ENAP)<\/strong> and is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    By Laurent Borzillo, Chercheur invit\u00e9 au CCEAE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al et chercheur associ\u00e9 au CESICE de l’Universit\u00e9 de Grenoble, \u00c9cole nationale d’administration publique (ENAP) Just six months after Donald Trump\u2019s return to the presidency in the United States, it feels like there has been a sharp break with America\u2019s post-war diplomatic legacy. The Trump […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":179,"featured_media":3607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"inline_featured_image":false,"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-editorials"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/179"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iranians.global\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}